El Nino threatens economic growth
Malawi’s 2023/24 gross domestic product (GDP) could contract by between four and 8.6 percent due to adverse climatic conditions influenced by El Nino weather pattern, it has emerged.
In a joint analysis on the effects of El Nino condition on Malawi’s economy by researchers from the International Food Policy Research Institute, National Planning Commission, , Malawi Liverpool Welcome Trust, Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services, University of Malawi, MwAPATA Institute and the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources established the threat nationwide.
The analysis shows that El Niño will affect the country’s maize production, hitting hard 60 percent ofmaize areas that were affected by low maize yields of between 15 and 30 percent inthe past El Niño years.
Consequently, maize production could decline by a maximum of 20 percent in worst case scenario, with household consumption capacity falling by up to 6.7 percent eroded consumption capacity more pronounced in urban (12.2 percent) than rural areas (two percent).
In the worst case scenario, the erosion of household production and livelihood capacities by the forecasted El Nino conditions could augment household poverty by 2.6 percent.
Reads the analysis in part: “Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairsshould scale-up the targeted social-cash transfers so as to build household productive capacities especially in rural areas. Ministry of Agriculture should encourage production of drought-tolerant, higher value crops withmore support targeting cooperatives.
“Commercial farming through mega-farms should be hastened to improve food production through irrigation.”
Malawi has had 10 El Nino affected years notably 1998, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2015, and 2016 . The seven negatively affected years are 1987, 1992, 1995, 1998,2005, 2015 and 2016.
Frequency and severity of climate-related disasters in Malawi have increased in recent decades.
Malawi has experienced 16 major floods, a rainfall-related landslide, five storm-related disasters and two severe droughts since 2010.
Cyclone Idai hit the country in 2019. In 2022, tropical storms Ana and Gombe affected about one million people, snatching lives of 46 persons and livelihoods of over 200 000 households.
Earlier, the World Bank warned that climate change can reduce Malawi’s GDP by three to nine percent by 2030, six to 20 percent by 2040 and eight to 16 percent by 2050 if the country stays on its current development trajectory, the World Bank estimated.
Malawi needs to invest $46.33 billion (about K79 trillion) up to 2040 or $2.21 billion (about K3 trillion) annually to deal with effects of climate change, according to climate change assessment.
Malawi 2063 enabler seven on environmental sustainability highlights three key actions, including embracing ecosystem-based approaches in managing the environment with harmonised legislation.
Minister of Environment and Climate Change Michael Usi said the private sector is key, but cannot progress if the human capital is always affected by climate change.
Minister of Finance and Economic Affairs Simplex Chithyola Banda conceded that the domestic economy is also prone to natural disaster which affects productivity in various sectors.
